Election 2019: Can the SNP Take Back the North-East?

The year was 2015, and Scottish politics was still cooling down from the whirlwind of debate and division that the independence referendum the previous year brought to the country. Despite the defeat suffered by the Scottish nationalists, the almost-clean sweep of Scottish seats obtained by the SNP made many think that it was a likelihood that the Conservatives - or even the Labour Party for that matter - would not make any significant gains in Scotland for years, or even decades.

But then again, nobody saw 2016 coming, or the snap election which followed in 2017 either. For many in the North-East, the result of Brexit nor the decision of Theresa May's bold - and ultimately regrettable - call for an election were as surprising as when the Tories claimed back six of Aberdeenshire's seats from the SNP on that fateful night in June 2017.

Now, another two years down the line and Boris Johnson has made that very same bold call, in the hope that he won't wake up on December 13th to the same sense of regret. What many in Aberdeenshire are now wondering, is not if Boris Johnson has made the right decision but if the Conservatives will continue to govern in the North-East or if their time is up.

One seat under the spotlight is Aberdeen South. Now ex-Tory MP Ross Thompson announced last week announced he would not be standing for re-election in the constituency following allegations he groped another MP at a Westminster bar. Challenging the seat is the SNP's Stephen Flynn, who says the Conservatives are in 'disarray' in the constituency.

Flynn is one of six SNP candidates hoping to regain their seats in December. Current polling indicates that the SNP could gain around seven more seats in Scotland, suggesting that several of these candidates could be successful in the North-East. To reel in the rhetoric of ifs and buts and polling, a month of campaigning remains for each side of the debate, however what can be assured is that whatever happens in Aberdeenshire will set a precedent for the strength of the SNP in the next parliament's sitting and will play a significant role in deciding if the party will be granted their desired 2020 indyref.